One thing I love to do is to make predictions. In December 2023 I made some predictions about where the values in Oshawa, Whitby and Clarington would be in May 2024. Let’s review my thoughts and see how accurate I was.
The 4th quarter of 2023 was challenging time for Sellers, with values declining and sluggish sales. For Buyers, this was a window of opportunity. What seemed to be driving the sales slump was the fact that most reporting was focused on high rates, and this led to a feeling of “uncertainty.” In any financial transaction, the certainty that your investment will be not only secure, but will grow over time is what causes investors to invest. Over the past few years, there have been people in media and some elected officials who tried to convince Canadians that Real Estate was just buying a place to love and that it was not an investment. All of the negative reporting seemed to have slowed sales down creating a buying opportunity.
However, I tend not follow the media “experts” and rely on my 4 decades of experience reading local trends and predicted that the values would increase by May 2024.
Here was what I thought would happen back in December 2023 for detached homes.
Durham Region: $1,040,000.
Oshawa: $880,000.
Whitby: $1,140,000.
Clarington: $985,000.
The trends that caused me to come to these increases in values were based on several components. Immigration, the emergence of reporting on rates coming down in 2024 and the fact that I could see the demand continued to exist, that the Buyers were just sitting on the sidelines. I felt that the window of opportunity for Buyers would close as soon as we moved into the new year.
As of the end of March, here is what the average selling prices are locally:
Durham Region: $1,056,000. (+ $101,000 year to date.)
Oshawa: $892,000. (+ $101,000 year to date.)
Whitby: $1,153,000 (+$62,000 year to date.)
Clarington: $980,000.(+$122,000 year to date.)
It appears that the market has moved faster than I anticipated. You could feel this happening in January, where agents started to “hold offers” on properties to a specific date to encourage bidding activity. It seems that the agents holding offers are in the first time Buyer price points. ($750,000 – $800,000 in Oshawa, 40% of all new listings are holding offers.)
A quick online search about mortgage rates in Canada show the top 3 headlines stating:
- “Canadian Mortgage Rates to Begin Drops Starting this Spring.”
- “Bank of Canada to keep Rates on Hold this Week, first cuts seen as early June.”
- “Home Prices could reach new Highs by 2026; CMCH study.”
With positive headlines such as these, the confidence is returning to the market and Buyers feel that they need to get in early before the values increase. By the end of 2024 I would not be surprised to see 2 or 3 rate decreases and values increasing by 10%! That would put Durham Region at $1,162,000, Oshawa at $981,000, Clarington at $1,078,000 and Whitby at $1,268,000.
If you are a Buyer, get in before prices become even more affordable. If you have questions or want to explore buying or selling, I can be reached at lindsay@buyselllove.ca or 905-743-5555.
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