Ok, it’s time to make a few predictions. Let’s review where we are currently to where we were at the market peak in winter 2022.
The top of the market for all of Durham Region was February 2022. The average home price at the peak was $1,229,000. As of the end of February 2023, values dropped to $888,500. That is a decrease of 28%! Media, people predicting a Real Estate collapse are frothing at these numbers, forecasting a dire future. If so, why it is so difficult to buy a home in March 2023?
The general curve of activity when a market shift is predictable. People are shocked at first, with the majority “freezing” – stopping all buying and selling, unsure of where the market is going. Buyers wait to see if the values will continue to drop and Sellers sit on the sidelines, seeing where the bottom is and when a turnaround is going to happen. With 7 mortgage rate increases in 2022, I saw this series of emotional stalling happening like clockwork, following a pattern I have had since the first shifted market I sold homes through in 1991. When we look at where we are currently, things appear, If I can step out onto the “diving board,” pretty amazing. Last week on our blog we covered how our inventory is at mid-pandemic lows, and how Buyers are out snapping up homes within days of hitting the market.
A quick look this week shows that Buyers are doing anything they can to find a home to purchase. Oshawa over the past week had 65% of all homes sell for full price or over asking. These were sales where Buyers didn’t just pay a thousand or two over asking, but where almost 20% of the homes sold for more than asking, selling for more than $50,000 over the asking price. Furthermore, 2 homes sold for more than $150,000 above the asking price. This is not a trend happening only in Oshawa, Whitby and Clarington saw 54% of all sales setting for more than asking. This is a trend beginning to reappear all across the GTW with Mississauga seeing 30% of all home sales at or over the asking price in the past week. (Mississauga has an average price of $1,385,000)
With strong sales and low inventory, the result is predictable. Bidding wars become commonplace, and prices escalate.
Since March 1st the average detached home in Whitby has increased by $96,000 and Oshawa by $26,000. This is the beginning of Buyers and Sellers with renewed confidence in the market and the future of Real Estate as an asset.
Here is what I feel will happen as we move into the summer:
| Mid-March 2023 | August 2023 | |
| Oshawa Detached Homes | $875,000 | $975,000 |
| Whitby Detached Homes | $1,133,000 | $1,300,000 |
| Clarington Detached Homes | $891,000 | $1,025,000 |
With the Greater Toronto Area welcoming 160,000 immigrants in 2022, and on track to surpass that number this year, the housing crisis that was top of mind in 2021 had not disappeared. It has just been overshadowed by rising rates and a stalled market. However, nothing stays static for long and we are seeing glimpses of a turnaround in the making. When you look at affordability, Durham has some of the least expensive homes in the GTA. There is only one community in all of the GTA with an average home price less than Oshawa and that is Brock Township in north Durham. (Beaverton, Sunderland, Cannington) All other communities are dramatically more expensive. With Oshawa 60 kms from downtown Toronto, if you go the same distance west you will be in Burlington, with an average price of $1,383,000. By travelling the same distance north from downtown Toronto you would be in Newmarket where the average detached home is selling for $1,318,000. Buyers talk. They know where the affordable areas are and southern Durham Region offers neighbourhoods equal to other communities at a fraction of the price.
If you are interested in exploring Durham Region and finding a home I can be reached at lindsay@buyselllove.ca