The kiddies are back to school and life is beginning to look normal again for families. I say that somewhat “tongue in cheek” as my next-door neighbours are navigating 3 kids in school and rep hockey simultaneously. Typically, once the kids return to school, many parents turn their attention to moving to a different home.
Since I began my career in 1986, the same activity cycle has appeared yearly. The market starts to spike in February and home sales stay brisk until the end of May, with summer closing dates. June to August the sales become a bit slower as weather, cottages and patios draw our attention. The market starts to ramp up once the kids return to their studies.

So where are we currently?

We have a few “outliers” this year that have stalled the start of the fall market. One is inflation. Families are experiencing costs to live that they have never seen before, and these elevated costs impact people’s vision of the future. If a couple decides to upsize, they have to feel that by doing so, they will not only gain more space in a larger home but that their mortgage payments will remain the same, and the new home will prove to be a good long-term investment. The future can look slightly less rosy during inflationary periods, causing people to hold off moving. We are seeing that effect in the market currently. The other outlier is mortgage rates. Homeowners were on pins and needles last week, waiting for the Bank of Canada to raise rates or hold them at their current levels. In the end, they held, and we all breathed a sigh of relief.

These distractions have stalled the beginning of the fall market. A good example would be that in Oshawa since September 1^st only 23 detached homes have sold. The same period in 2022 saw 34 detached homes with sold signs. We also saw the average detached home in Oshawa increase in price by $75,000 during the first 11 days of September 2022. Currently, prices have slipped in Oshawa since the beginning of the month.

However, there is always a, however, history shares that this may be a short-lived opportunity. In Oshawa over the past week all homes that sold sold for 11% over the asking price. This is a lagging indicator, which typically indicates that values will rise over the next short while. We have not seen values for detached homes in Oshawa since December 2019! Whitby detached homes are $60,000 lower than last month’s end, and Clarington prices remain unchanged.

The opportunities are in Oshawa and Whitby.

My “spidey sense” leads me to believe that this lull will last less than a week, and we will be back to prices similar to what we have seen throughout 2023.

Real Estate is constantly in flux, with the public’s confidence, mortgage rates and inflation all impacting the value of homes. But like any commodity, values will continue to rise. What is that old expression, “buy waterfront, they are not making any more of it,” well based on our market having many more Buyers than Sellers, that expression may be better stated as “buy what you can afford, we may not see prices like this again.”

If you are interested in purchasing a home or have a home you need to sell, I can be reached at lindsay@buyselllove.ca or 905-743-5555
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