Let’s pretend that we had a blackout and lost what home prices were doing from December 2021 – February 2022. It might be called “willful blindness,’ so stick with me for a few minutes.
The May 2023 statistics are out, and one thing is certain; no one rang a bell at the bottom of the market. Meaning, for Buyers I have spoken with who were waiting for prices to bottom out, they have missed their chance. The bottom came in July/22 for Oshawa, November/22 for Whitby and in Clarington the bottom of the market happened in December/22.
When we look at comparing May/23 to May/22 prices, the results show the optimism Buyers have in our market.
| Average Detached Prices | May/22 | May/23 |
| Oshawa | $922,000 | $927,000 |
| Clarington | $1,049,000 | $996,000 |
| Whitby | $1,130,000 | $1,220,000 |
It is easy to see that after the market peaked in early 2022, the values stabilized along with increased selling prices in Oshawa and Whitby year over year. Whitby has really jumped up in price, adding $90,000! When we look at pricing trends, a leading indicator of price increases are current inventories of homes currently for sale.
| Detached Homes for Sale | May/22 | May/23 |
| Oshawa | 266 | 183 |
| Clarington | 176 | 104 |
| Whitby | 141 | 96 |
One more set of numbers to complete the picture is the number of homes that are selling year over year.
| Detached Homes Sold | May/22 | May/23 |
| Oshawa | 189 | 222 |
| Clarington | 138 | 183 |
| Whitby | 134 | 127 |
The above numbers tell a story with some insight into the future. When inventory drops and demand stays the same or increases, the results are increasing prices. This is exactly where we find ourselves. We are or are heading into a “heady – lop sided” market. Bidding contests are continuing, homes are selling for dramatically over asking prices and Buyers are again dealing with the frustration of losing out on homes they love.
In the past week, the average of all homes sold between Whitby and Clarington, sold for 113% of asking price and 80% of all homes sold, sold for full price or for more than asking. Like it or not the market is returning.
What does the future look like for Durham Region real estate? Unless the inventory changes, we will see values increasing, Buyers bidding on homes and market times that are days not weeks. It is conceivable that by the end of 2023 we may see prices like what they were at the high values last spring.
The values in our area have increased on a yearly basis over the past decade. Looking back to our Durham Region sales history to see how a lack of inventory impacted prices, in May 2012 we had 791 homes for sale and 549 homes sold (Oshawa, Whitby and Clarington.) By May 2016 the number of homes for sale dropped to 360 and the sales increased to 687. Prices on average jumped over $200,000.
It looks like the writing is on the wall, we are heading into a period of escalating prices. If you are planning on buying a home, “time is not your friend” meaning, get in fast before history repeats itself.
If you are interested in exploring buying or selling your current property, I can be reached at lindsay@buyselllove.ca or 905-743-5555
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