Let’s take a quick look back in time to see where the values have been before we look at where they are currently.

I began my career selling Real Estate in 1986. So long ago that the Real Estate Board does not have individual statistics from that prehistoric age. When I started our three communities had about 250,000 residents. We currently have over 400,000. The average price for homes in the entire GTA (the data does not go back this far for individual towns) was $139,000. This took in all of the GTA towns along with downtown Toronto. Crazy huh! I remember selling a northwest Whitby Semi-detached home for around $70,000. The last home sold on that street in Whitby fetched $1,070,000.

In a nutshell, the values were spiking from the time I started my career until the spring of 1989 when they literally stopped. It took until the end of the year, and we saw a drop of about 30% in values over a 12-month period. It took 13 years for the values to return.

We are currently seeing some shifting in the market with prices softening and inventory building, hence the reason I am getting questions about where I feel the market is heading.

Let’s get one thing out of the way – I do not feel we are in for a correction. One difference with the market today is that we have immigration that is putting pressure on a limited inventory market. The GTA receives about half of all new Canadians and with new home inventory being so slow to come to market we will continue to see a strong “Sellers Market.” Mortgage rates are another reason that the market will continue to be strong. We have seen decade low mortgage rates and they are rising, however, even with the increased rates, they are still lower than when my parents purchased their first home in 1962.  (They paid $12,500 for an Oshawa bungalow and the mortgage rate was a 30-year locked-in rate of 6.25%)

Real Estate has become politicized over the past decade, with each elected party having ideas on how to create more balance, and to date, none being successful at this goal. Given this lack of coordinated effort to add more supply, I cannot see much change in to balance of the market with more inventory.

Here is where we currently are with the most commonly sold properties in Oshawa, Whitby and Clarington; detached homes, semi-detached and townhomes. I have also included where the values have moved over the past month:
 

Area	Type of Home	April Sales Price	March Sale Price	+/- Change
Oshawa	Detached	$1,047,000	$1,100,000	– $53,000
	Semi-Detached	$776,000	$853,000	– $77,000
Whitby	Detached	$1,295,000	$1,402,000	– $107,000
	Townhome	$945,000	$1,042,000	– $97,000
Clarington	Detached	$1,114,000	$1,150,000	– $36,000
	Townhome	$883,000	$925,000	– $42,000

 
To put this into some easy-to-understand context, the home prices in Oshawa and Clarington are almost exactly where they were at the beginning of 2022, with Whitby detached home prices increasing just over $35,000.
Year over year, Oshawa detached homes have increased $189,000, Whitby has jumped up to $210,000 and Clarington prices have shot up to $179,000! We have lost a little bit of ground, but over the past year, the values are incredibly high.

What this adjustment has done, is offer the Buyers much better value, however, this value decrease is something of a “double-edged” sword. The rates rising have unfortunately increased payments on a mortgage, that even with lower prices the carrying costs may be higher than before.

The advice I was given prior to starting my career is still sound today. We know what the values are and can anticipate that they will continue to increase over time. That is an educated guess, however, what we are being told is that the rates will continue to rise as we move through the next year or two until inflation is effectively dealt with. The advice that I believe is relevant today is that if you are considering buying a home, expect that both values and rates will rise, meaning the faster you get into the market the better the long-term outcome will be.

For Sellers, if you are planning on selling in the next year, we only know what we can see happening in the market today. If you are selling and buying again, you should be fine trading in the same market, however, if you are selling hoping to “cash-out” for retirement reasons, time may not be your friend.

A saying I heard during the downturn of the USA Real Estate market in 2008 is as accurate today as it was back then – “no one rings a bell at the bottom.” For that matter, not one rings the bell at the top. IF you are planning a move, move quickly. Who knows what tomorrow might bring… it may be even more snow.

I can be reached at lindsay@buyselllove.ca or 905-743-5555
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