When I review the previous month’s selling statistics, I do my best to use the KISS principles. (Keep it simple, stupid) It is easy to go down a rabbit hole trying to find nuanced changes; however, I feel when many people do that, they are looking to prove a point rather than interpret what is really going on.

Once the monthly statistics are published, I start by reviewing at how many homes were sold that month compared to the previous year. Here are the September 2023 numbers compared to September 2024 for detached homes.

	OSHAWA		WHITBY		CLARINGTON
	Sales	Inventory	Sales	Inventory	Sales	Inventory
September/23	106	276	78	193	78	162
September/24	124	401	74	250	83	276

Looking at the individual communities you can see that both the number of sales and inventory is up in Oshawa. In fact, the sales increased by 17% and inventory increased by 45%. This would look from the outset somewhat gloomy but digging a bit deeper we notice that the average home was sold in 21 days and for 3% above asking. What this leads me to believe is that the Oshawa market has been flooded with homes that area either too highly priced or in below average conditions that are causing them not to sell. Whitby sales remained flat over 2023 however their inventory increased with Clarington sales up marginally over 2023.

Here is where the sales/inventory numbers go off track and make little sense. Whitby sold fewer homes than they did last September and sales were down by 20% over the previous month however their average sales prices increased from $1,091,000 to $1,106,000 Furthermore Clarington prices increased by $36,000 even with fewer sales that the previous month.

When I dig into the end of the month statistics, what I look for are trends. Trends in average prices, number of sales and listings and what is happening that is newsworthy in the economy. Currently we are heading towards another rate set adjustment by the Bank of Canada on October 23^rd and most economists are predicting a ½% rate drop. Whey Buyers decide to move they do so when they feel they can buy a home at a low price that will increase in the future, with a manageable mortgage rate. At the first of 2024 our Bank of Canada lending rate was 4.75% and currently it has lowered to 4.25%. With a further drop to 3.75% anticipated this month, this will help to stimulate interest in Buyers. Along with more favorable rates, the prices for an average detached home in Oshawa are $20,000 less than they were in January. One thing that has been constant over the past 39 years of my career is that prices do not stay static for long periods of time. The three pillars of a strong market where Buyers are active are number of homes for sale, prices and mortgage rates. With all three of these “pillars” being a benefit to Buyers we will soon see sold signs followed by the price of homes escalating. Smart Buyers are shopping now.

If you are looking to take advantage of the market we are in or if you are interested in selling a property, I can be reached at lindsay@buyselllove.ca or 905-743-5555.

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