Confused about where our Real Estate market is heading in 2024? Your confusion is a reasonable response. Let’s take a look at some of the headlines and predictions:

• CBC: predicts sluggish sales unless mortgage rates drop or Seller’s start cutting prices.
• Royal Lepage: 6% increase in prices in the GTA by year end.
• RE/max: 3% drop in prices for the GTA by year end.
• BNN: Home prices will return to pandemic peak by end of 2024.
• Storeys: Canadian house prices to fall 10% in 2024 as economy slips into Recession.

When it comes down to predicting where our Real Estate market is heading, journalists seem to be clamouring to share with readers what their “crystal balls” reveal. And based on the above headlines, it appears that no one really knows what the future will bring.

When I look at predictions, I tend to observe what is happening with sales and selling prices looking back to see if I can identify trends that may repeat. Sometimes the trends are buried and you have to dig a bit to find them, however sales cycles repeat and these nuanced signs tend to be accurate.

If we go back to 2023, we notice we had a rally in the spring and prices started to jump hitting the years highest values in June. (Oshawa, Whitby and Clarington.) After this rally we saw the values slide until the end of the year. In Oshawa and Clarington values dropped by about 15% from June – December last year whereas Whitby dropped by 10%. Then this slide reversed and since the beginning of the year, Oshawa detached home prices have jumped by 14%, Whitby by 3% and Clarington have increased by 3%.

When you compare how many homes have sold year over year, you see a trend emerging that shows us where the market may be moving. In Whitby, the market saw 49 homes sold in January 2023, and last month that number was 75. Clarington sales increased slightly from 48 to 54 and Oshawa increased from 74 to 112. The result is that in the 3 local communities, 65% of all properties in the past week have sold for full price or over asking.

2024 is trending towards a “normal” year with the market beginning to move in late January with activity and prices spiking from March – April. When I think of a typical opening of a year for Real Estate, 2019 comes to mind. In 2019, the market started early with the bulk of sales happening in February – May, which saw move in dates in July and August, prior to the school year beginning. This is a constant cycle that has repeated itself for most of the 38 years I have been in Real Estate sales.

When a market shifts, like it is doing currently, some Buyers and Agents are slow to react to the trends unfolding. I covered much of this in my last blog post, and having mentioned that I had an agent from Mississauga submit a low offer on a property I had listed for sale. The property was listed for $1,200,000 and the most recent comparable sale was $1,178,000. The west end agent submitted an offer for $972,000 and in fact we had several offers submitted for $1,100,000. In each instance the agents representing the Buyer did their best to share that the market had fallen in value. Over the weekend I sold the home for $1,185,000 capturing the highest sale price in months. Understanding the local market helps when it comes to reading trends and what direction the prices are going, and in serving the best interests of your Seller.

Sometimes mainstream news media are accurate when they post headlines about Real Estate, however in many cases they are commenting on trends across all of Canada. The best way to gather local, relevant information is to deal with a full-time local Broker.

I would be happy to share some information on the market in your neighborhood, or in an area that you would like to buy a home in. I can be reached at lindsay@buyselllove.ca or 905-743-5555

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