Let’s take a “stab” at where the market will be at the end of the spring market in 2024. Spring in Real Estate tends to end about the time the tulips are breaking ground… so around the first of May.

Here is what detached homes are selling for currently:

Durham Region – $988,000

Oshawa – $820,800

Whitby – $1,038,000

Clarington – $938,500

The values have been all over the map over the past 12 months. Oshawa hit a high of $930,000 in June/22, Whitby peaked at $1,200,000 and Clarington $1,012,000. It is apparent that statistically Whiby fell the furthest at -13.5% with Oshawa a close second at -12%. With this slip in values, here is where I feel we will be for market values around May 2024.

Durham Region – $1040,000

Oshawa – $880,000

Whitby – $1,140,000

Clarington – $985,000

To recap, between November 2022 until the end of April 2023 Oshawa prices increased by 7%, Whitby by 10% and Clarington jumped up by 5%. Interestingly, if we go back to 2021 over 2022 during the same time period, Oshawa jumped up by *5, Whitby by 5% and Clarington prices rose by 8%. Most years there is a substantial increase from the end of the calendar year to the end of the spring of the year following.

2022 and 2023 were sidelined by either rate increases, or the worry about increases and we saw that activity dropped off prior to the Bank of Canada announcing a rate increase and/or holding the rates where they were, and then once the “rate-day” passed we saw activity increase dramatically. This was how last week rolled out; once the rate stayed unchanged, the Buyers on one of our listings started the next day.

The pressure as we move into spring 2024, is not that we will be worried about rate increases, it will be how quickly are they going to start dropping. In fact it’s already a topic people are discussing. I read several news reports suggesting that the rates may drop last week. Even though that did not happen, typically once we start seeing the media talking about rate drops, they tend to happen.

2024 will be the year things settle and the pent-up pool of Buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines will start to tour homes again.

My prediction, along with the above value increases is that by May 2024 we will see the 5-year mortgage rates drop by 1%. This would place 5-year term mortgage rates in the 4.5% – 5.25% range. (Insured/uninsured.)

With rates in the 4.5% range for fixed-term mortgages or even less for variable-rate mortgages, the sidelines will be empty with all of the Buyers scooping up good deals.

If you are interested in exploring a spring sale, or looking for a home, I can be reached at lindsay@buyselllove.ca or 905-743-5555.

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