Buy Sell Love Durham

Connection, Empathy and Change in Real Estate

When Statistics don’t tell the Truth

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Image of a calculator, pen and printed numbers to begin Lindsay Smith's real estate blog about using statistical information to understand real estate numbers

Here is a snapshot of Oshawa, Whitby and Clarington:
Average Detached Home sale:   July/23         August 21/23
Oshawa:                                        $906,000     $874,000
Whitby:                                          $1,171,000      $1,149,000
Clarington:                                    $969,000      $988,000

A quick overview indicates that Oshawa and Whitby have dropped in average home prices by $20,000 and Clarington has increased by over $30,000. Happy Clarington and sad for Oshawa and Whitby. However, sometimes statistics miss the mark.

When I review activity, I look at the average price, which is a given, however, I also take in the information from days on the market, how many homes are selling for full or more than the asking price and the number of homes sold conditionally. These metrics together give us a better understanding of where the market is currently.

Let’s start with days on the market. On average in the three communities, the average home takes 16 days to sell. For the entire month of July, the average market time was 13 days. This month’s sales are taking only 3 days longer. For homes sold over asking, in the past week all of the sales in Oshawa, the average home sold for 8% over asking. (This may not sound like a lot however when the average selling price is $874,000 that is $70,000 above asking.) An interesting side note is that on average Clarington homes sold for 4% over asking, below the statistic for Oshawa, and still Clarington prices have increased since the first of the month.

 What we can learn from Conditional sales is that when a large number of Sellers accept offers with conditions, they do so unwillingly, really wishing for firm unconditional offers. This is a mark of a softening market.  In the high times of early 2022, literally all homes sold with unconditional offers. In Oshawa, we saw 23 homes sold in the past week with conditions, compared to 31 the previous week. Whitby had 15 conditional home sales, up from 11, and Clarington had the same number of homes sold with conditions.

The other item that is like a barometer of the market is finding two similar homes sold in the same neighbourhood within months of each other. This is an excellent way of determining what is happening in the market. Last week we sold a home at 1171 Cherrydown Drive. The best comparable home sale was the same model across the street that sold in May 2023. The statistics indicate that home prices have dropped by 2% since this comparable home sold. That would mean that a home sold in May for $792,000 should be worth about $776,000 today. The upgrades in the May sale that were above the condition of our home suggested a sale price of our listing of about $20,000 less than $792,000, indicating our property was worth around $756,000. In the end, we placed the home on the market and with a 4-way bidding contest the home sold for $778,000, far exceeding our expectations.

Determining the value of a home in the current market is a challenge for a local agent with so many variables to consider. I have seen agents who are not local with homes that sell dramatically under what the neighbouring properties are selling for. We recently had a home on the street we live on sell for under $1,000,000 whereas in the past 30 days, the average 2-storey home in our area averaged $1,102,000!

Who you work with to sell your home matters. Who you work with to buy a home matters. And I have learned no one knows an area like a local, full-time agent.

If you are interested in learning how to maximize the selling price of your home, I can be reached at lindsay@buyselllove.ca or 905-743-5555.
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