I understand why many people are confused about Real Estate in Ontario. A quick Google search titled “Real Estate News Ontario 2024” returned a list of responses, and as confusing as they are here are some of the top picks.
- What is the forecast for Canadian Real Estate in 2025? – Demand will be in the lower price points. Sales levels in 2025 and 2026 will be above the 10-year average but lower than 2020 and 2021.
- Will house prices go up in 2024? – Nationwide prices will fall 1% and will increase in 2025 by 3.1%.
- What is the future of Real Estate in Ontario? – Prices will increase in the GTA by 6% in 2024.
- Is 2024 a good year to buy a house in Ontario? – 2024 may be the best time to buy a home in over 5 years in Canada as the market shifts to a Buyers’ market.
It is apparent that finding information about the Real Estate market is a challenge, especially when the market is in a shift or has just emerged from one.
One of the metrics I use when I review the “health” of the Real Estate market is a tool called an “Absorption Chart.” What this is, is a tool that looks at how many homes sold in a previous month (in specific communities and in $50,000 price ranges) along with how many homes in that price range were left on the market available at the end of the month. We can then see how many months of supply are left over as the new month begins. A retail example would be a grocery store employee would note that for the month of March they sold 100 bottles of ketchup, and that there were 50 left on the shelves. This would indicate that there are about 23 bottles weekly sold and with 50 left over at the beginning of a new month the supply would run out in about 2 weeks. This allows the employee to know how many bottles to order to allow selection without having to unnecessarily carry a large inventory. Real Estate is viewed in the same manner.
If we look at Whitby, the average detached home at the end of March sold for around $1,150,000 and there were 14 homes sold between $1.15M and $1.2M for the month. At the end of the month there were 14 homes left available in this price range. This would mean that there is enough inventory for 1 month based on the current supply.
When I look at Oshawa, Whitby and Clarington, here is what the months of supply look like in the average price ranges for the 3 communities.
| Area | Avg. Selling Price | Home Sold March/24 | Available End of March | Months of Supply |
| Oshawa | $892,000 | 23 | 31 | 1.35 months |
| Whitby | $1,153,000 | 14 | 14 | 1 month |
| Clarington | $980,000 | 10 | 16 | 1.6 months |
The definition of a “balanced market” is one with 3 – 4 months of supply. Currently we under 2 months of supply which would indicate that we are in an “active Seller’s market.’ The results of low inventory we have seen only too often over the past few years. Bidding contests and conditional offers being avoided. This tool helps predict the coming weeks and months. If one looks at Whitby where there is one month of supply, this is the indicator of a market where the values will be increasing due to a lack of available homes. Reflecting on these numbers explains why Whitby home prices have increased for both the month of March along with increasing $17,000 so far in April.
There is an expression, “success leaves breadcrumbs” and in this case with the right information, we can see where the trends should take home sales.
If you are interested in a deeper discussion on how knowing these trends can help you buy or sell at an advantage, I can be reached at 905-743-5555 or lindsay@buyselllove.ca.
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