Have we “Progued” the Real Estate Market?

Prorogue is a word that has been bouncing around over the past few months here in Canada. If you are unaware what it means here is a definition;

To terminate a session of something (such as Canadian parliament) by Royal prerogative.

(BTW this is not a political blog… so no need to bolt.)

Our federal government has prorogued Parliament in January and the thought was to resume governing in late March. What this does is pause the government in their activities allowing for time to move on. Proroguing is done for many reasons however the question came up this past weekend that caused me to start pondering our local economy. “Has the Real Estate market been prorogued?” Meaning, have we entered a “pause” phase with sales? Let’s take a look at some of the reasons that this might be the case.

Here is a timeline of major events in Canada so far in 2025.

• January – threats of tariffs and Canada being annexed.
• January 6 – Federal government prorogued.
• January 6 – Justin Trudeau resigns.
• January 29 – Bank of Canada drops rates by ¼%.
• February 1 – 25% tariffs starting on Canadian goods.
• February 3 – tariffs on hold until March 3 2025.
• March 5 – tariffs to begin April 2 2025.
• March 9 – new Liberal Leader chosen.
• March 12 – Bank of Canada drops rates by ¼%.
• March 23 – Federal election called for April 28 2025..

Is your head spinning, because mine certainly is with all of this turmoil. When there is instability in our country or our economy the typical outcome is uncertainty. Should I buy that car or wait? Should I sell my home or wait to see what happens with the economy? Should I book that trip or save my money in case times get challenging? Uncertainty causes people to “pause” and sit out waiting to see what the outcome of the market change will be. I have personally seen this happen many times over the past 4 decades in my business.

I really feel “prorogue” is a perfect word to describe what is happening in Real Estate currently. Nervous Sellers are placing their homes on the market and skeptical Buyers are sitting tight waiting to see if rates continue to drop, if values decline or of their bargaining power increases.

Here are a few things I learned from navigating shifting markets.

1. When markets shift they create opportunities. These opportunities are short lived and when we are (as we are experiencing currently) moving into a Buyers market, the opportunities for Buyers quickly disappear. The market is most balanced when in a neutral or Sellers market.
2. Waiting for rates to drop makes little sense. I just renewed 2 mortgages as variable rate products and have seen my mortgage rates drop twice. By waiting for rates to decline a Buyer may miss out on opportunities.
3. When entering a Buyers market a Seller who is thinking of moving up is in a perfect position. With no risk of loss by placing their homes on the market, if they are fortunate enough to sell they will be then buying in a Buyers market. If they do not sell they have not lost out.
4. Once the fear leaves the market, (which will happen once the tariff issue is resolved) the pent up demand will be unleashed and the market will shift not only to a Sellers market but one that is overheated with inventory dropping and values spiking.

From my point of view I see a pause happening in the market here in Durham Region. We currently have 749 detached homes for sale in Oshawa, Whitby and Clarington. At the beginning of 2025 we had 446 and in January 2024 that number was 302. Our inventory has increased by over 100% since the beginning of 2024. This is the opportunity number. However as quickly as the inventory has grown, it may decline.

If a Buyer is sitting on the fence, or waiting to see what happens, now is the time to buy. If they wait, they may end up paying more. For all Durham Region sales in the first 3 months of 2024 the average prices jumped by $76,000.

If you are curious about moving up, moving down or getting into the market, I can be reached at 905-743-5555 or lindsay@buyselllove.ca. Connect with us on Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn and YouTube.