Buyers Are Waiting… But For What?

A recent survey revealed some fascinating clues about where our housing market is headed. In short: Buyers want to buy — just not right now.

Here are the highlights:

13% of Canadian adults are considering buying their first home within the next 2 years.
Of those, 82% plan to buy in 12–24 months.
And 53% expect to have a down payment of more than 20%.

On paper, this sounds encouraging. But here’s the reality check: the average home price in Canada today is $687,000. A 20% down payment is a staggering $137,000.

And while those Buyers are waiting, the market is shifting.

What the Survey Didn’t Tell You

The last time we saw the national average at $687,000 was back in May 2021. Since July 2023, prices have been slowly dropping. Since January of this year alone, values are down 3%.

But here’s the thing about real estate: it rarely stays still. My 40 years in the business have shown me the same pattern time and again — prices creep downward, buyers hold back, and then suddenly the market snaps back with a spike. It feels like it happens overnight.

And right now, after nearly 18 months of slow declines, we’re set up for the next climb.

A Story From the Last Downturn

Back in 2010, during another soft market, a client working with my colleague Wendy Starr had the chance to buy a bank-owned condo. They balked at a $5,000 counteroffer and walked away, convinced prices would fall further.

Six months later that same condo was worth $50,000 more. Fast-forward a few years, and it had appreciated by over $200,000.

That’s the cost of waiting.

The Cost of Waiting Now

Let’s put this into today’s numbers.

A Buyer with a 10% down payment ($70,000) would pay about $19,000 in CMHC insurance.
If they buy today at $687,000, they lock in that value.
If they wait and prices rise by just 3% — a modest bump — by early 2026 that same home could be $708,000.
In Whitby, for example, that’s a $34,000 increase for the same house.

In other words: waiting for the “perfect time” could cost you more than the insurance premium itself.

A Market on the Verge

With interest rates already easing and another cut expected this fall, Buyers will re-enter the market. And when they do, the psychology flips fast. Much like gas prices — once we’ve paid $2 per litre, $1.80 feels like a bargain — today’s home prices will look like deals compared to the next jump.

Here’s what just a 3–5% rise would look like locally:

Oshawa: $826,000 → $851,000 (3%) / $867,000 (5%)
Whitby: $1,128,000 → $1,162,000 (3%) / $1,184,000 (5%)
Clarington: $877,000 → $903,000 (3%) / $921,000 (5%)

A small percentage swing equals tens of thousands of dollars.

My Advice

If you’re one of the 53% planning to buy in a year or two, consider this: the best time to buy is often when it feels most uncomfortable. Waiting may feel safer, but it can be the costliest decision of all.

If you want to talk strategy — how to make the numbers work and get your foot in the door — reach out. It could be the smartest move you ever make.

📧 lindsay@buyselllove.ca | 📞 905-743-5555