I started my real estate career in late 1986. At the time, the market was relatively balanced, with Buyers and Sellers operating on fairly equal footing. That began to change in the summer of 1987, and by the following year we were in a full-blown Seller’s market.

Values rose dramatically and homes were routinely selling at or near asking price. We didn’t see the kind of bidding wars that became common in more recent years, but make no mistake, the market was crazy. Then, in the spring of 1989, it stalled. Actually, it stopped.

Prices didn’t fall immediately. Activity disappeared first. By the end of that year, values began dropping dramatically, and in roughly six months prices in some areas fell by around 30%. Sales became scarce and, once prices finally found the bottom, they stayed there for years.

What happened next, looking back, was completely understandable. At first, the number of homes for sale climbed to levels we had never seen before. With very few Buyers purchasing, getting a home sold became increasingly difficult.

Eventually, frustrated Sellers began taking their homes off the market in droves. Inventory started falling because fewer people were willing to list their homes if they didn’t believe they could sell them for a price they were prepared to accept. Slowly, the imbalance corrected itself, and the market eventually returned to something resembling normal, where neither Buyers nor Sellers held all the cards.

Fast-forward to the fall of 2026, and I’m seeing some familiar patterns.

Today, there are approximately 2,467 homes for sale in Durham Region. Compare that with 2019, the last year I would describe as a relatively normal market, when there were approximately 1,803 homes available for sale. At the same time, current sales are down almost 40% compared with that period.

That combination matters because more inventory and fewer sales inevitably change the balance of power. Homes take longer to sell, negotiating becomes more important, and Buyers become far more selective. I have seen this movie before.

One of the things that happened during the early 1990s correction was the return of offers conditional on the Buyer selling their existing home. Initially, Sellers wanted nothing to do with them, but reality eventually intervened.

As the market weakened, Sellers began accepting those conditions because the alternative was often no offer at all. Eventually, home-sale conditions became a normal part of the market. We are beginning to see them again, and while that may seem like a small detail, I don’t believe it is.

Markets don’t change overnight. They change through a series of small adjustments in behaviour. Buyers become more cautious, Sellers become more flexible, conditions return, pricing strategies change and expectations reset. The market often adapts before the statistics make the shift obvious.

I believe we are in that adaptation stage now.

Inventory may continue to build as mortgages renew at higher rates, homeowners deal with affordability pressures and the employment market remains uncertain. Eventually, however, I believe we reach a tipping point where some Sellers decide not to sell, inventory begins to contract, more transactions happen conditionally, prices become more predictable and the gap between Buyers and Sellers begins to narrow.

That is how stability returns, and I believe we could begin seeing a more balanced market by spring 2027.

There is another important difference between today’s market and the one I worked through in the early 1990s, and that is the sheer number of real estate agents.

Today, there are roughly 70,000 agents belonging to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. In 2019, there were just over 50,000, and in 2010 there were only about 30,000.

Think about that for a moment.

Tens of thousands of agents working today entered the business during a period when real estate behaved very differently. For much of the past decade, the biggest challenge was often getting the listing. Once a good home hit the market, Buyers frequently competed for it, properties sold quickly, conditions disappeared and prices rose. Marketing mistakes could sometimes be hidden by overwhelming demand.

That isn’t the market we have today.

Selling a home when Buyers are scarce requires a completely different skill set. Pricing matters more, presentation matters more, marketing matters more and negotiation matters more. Knowing when to accept a conditional offer matters more, and understanding the psychology of a declining or stagnant market matters enormously.

That observation isn’t meant as an insult to newer agents. I watched experienced agents struggle during the correction of the early 1990s as well. When the rules of the market change, strategies that worked brilliantly yesterday can become liabilities tomorrow.

Experience doesn’t mean predicting the future perfectly. It means recognizing patterns sooner and knowing which tools still work when the market stops behaving the way people became accustomed to.

All economies move through cycles, and real estate is no different. The market we are experiencing today will eventually find equilibrium. I don’t believe we are there yet, but I do believe we are getting closer, and spring 2027 may be when we begin to see a more recognizable balance return.

Recently, someone asked me an interesting question. If I had all the knowledge I have accumulated over 40 years in real estate, but I didn’t have a real estate licence, how would I choose the agent I wanted representing me today?

The answer came surprisingly easily.

I would look for someone who had successfully worked through an unstable market before. Not because age automatically equals competence, because it doesn’t, but because I would want someone who understood what happens when homes don’t sell in seven days.

I would want someone who knows how to reposition a listing that isn’t attracting Buyers, someone who has negotiated home-sale conditions, price reductions and difficult inspections, and someone who understands when a Buyer has leverage, when a Seller has leverage and, most importantly, when neither side really does.

Boom markets can make almost everyone look clever. Markets like this one reveal who actually knows how to sell real estate.

And if history does repeat itself, the next year may remind us that experience isn’t about knowing exactly what the market will do next.

It’s about knowing what to do when it does.

If you are planning a move I would be happy to share the strategies for working in challenging and put them to work for you. I can be reached at lindsay@buyselllove.ca or 905-743-5555